Authors: [REPOST]

Dans un passé qui n’est pas si lointain, nous utilisions de
nombreux logiciels de bureau.Pour saisir du texte, retoucher des
photos, mettre en page des présentations, réaliser des calculs
complexes, envoyer des emails ou sauvegarder ses
photos… Depuis, les technologies web se sont beaucoup
développées, permettant à de nombreux outils en ligne de voir le
jour.Nous n’avons pas besoin de les installer sur nos PC et la
plupart des services en ligne sont gratuits et accessibles en
mobilité.Nous en présentons beaucoup dans notre rubrique
[1] :des outils pour
gagner du temps, pour mieux gérer ses emails, pour retoucher des
photos, ou des outils web plus généralistes. Le problème, c’est
qu’il existe des dizaines de sites pour gérer ses comptes sur les
réseaux sociaux, des dizaines d’autres pour supprimer les données
EXIF d’une photo, et des centaines pour convertir un
document PDF
[2].La liste ci-dessous
n’est pas exhaustive, mais elle permet de connaître les services
efficaces pour plus ou moins tout faire sur Internet.Ils sont tous
gratuits. Certains sont massivement utilisés par les
professionnels du web mais d’autres sont de véritables pépites
méconnues.[3] permet d’effectuer…

A suivre

Authors: [REPOST]

Dans cette courte nouvelle, la chroniqueuse Sara Watson explore un
avenir proche, où les objets familiers se serviront de nos données
personnelles pour répondre à la moindre de nos envies.Encore
faut-il qu’ils interprètent correctement les choses… Mon crétin
de réfrigérateur pense que je suis enceinte. Je voulais me prendre
une de mes bières favorites dans le compartiment à boissons
alcoolisées à identification biométrique, mais il ne m’a pas
laissée faire.Notre dernière livraison de Peapod comprenait des
pickles, du jus d’orange et des vitamines pour femme
enceinte.Normalement, il n’y a jamais de jus d’orange à la maison
:je trouve ça trop acide.Par quelle magie de l’apprentissage
automatique ce produit s’était-il retrouvé là ? J’avais remarqué
l’autre jour que mon objectif consommation d’eau avait changé sur
ma Vessyl et je ne savais pas trop pourquoi.Je m’étais dit que
j’étais juste particulièrement déshydratée. J’aurais dû m’y
attendre.Nos toilettes connectées FoutainTM ont remarqué que j’ai
arrêté la contraception hormonale pour passer au stérilet.Mais je
croyais que les données des toilettes n’étaient communiquées qu’à
Nest et à nos médecins ?…

A suivre

THE predictions sounded like promises: in the future, working hours would be short and vacations long. “Our grandchildren”, reckoned John Maynard Keynes in 1930, would work around “three hours a day”—and probably only by choice. Economic progress and technological advances had already shrunk working hours considerably by his day, and there was no reason to believe this trend would not continue. Whizzy cars and ever more time-saving tools and appliances guaranteed more speed and less drudgery in all parts of life. Social psychologists began to fret: whatever would people do with all their free time? This has not turned out to be one of the world’s more pressing problems. Everybody, everywhere seems to be busy. In the corporate world, a “perennial time-scarcity problem” afflicts executives all over the globe, and the matter has only grown more acute in recent years, say analysts at McKinsey, a consultancy firm. These feelings are especially profound among working parents. As for all those time-saving gizmos, many people grumble that these bits of wizardry chew up far too much of their days, whether they are mouldering in traffic, navigating robotic voice-messaging systems…

Authors: [REPOST]

Qu’on le veuille ou pas, l’incertitude génère inconfort, inquiétude, peur voire anxiété, soit des émotions « managérialement incorrectes » dans un monde où certains croient encore dur comme fer que la décision dite rationnelle est le summum de l’intelligence de l’homo economicus.


Richard Feynman

From a Caltech commencement address given in 1974
Also in Surely You’re Joking, Mr.Feynman!

During the Middle Ages there were all kinds of crazy ideas, such as that a piece of of rhinoceros horn would increase potency.Then a method was discovered for separating the ideas–which was to try one to see if it worked, and if it didn’t work, to eliminate it.This method became organized, of course, into science.And it developed very well, so that we are now in the scientific age.It is such a scientific age, in fact, that we have difficulty in understanding how witch doctors could ever have existed, when nothing that they proposed ever really worked–or very little of it did.

But even today I meet lots of people who sooner or later get me into a conversation about UFO’s, or astrology, or some form of mysticism, expanded consciousness, new types of awareness, ESP, and so forth.And I’ve concluded that it’s not a scientific world.

Most people believe so many wonderful things that I decided to investigate why they did.And what has been referred to as my curiosity for investigation has landed me in a difficulty where I found so much junk that I’m overwhelmed.First I started out by investigating various ideas of mysticism and mystic experiences.I went into isolation tanks and got many hours of hallucinations, so I know something about that.Then I went to Esalen, which is a hotbed of this kind of thought (it’s a wonderful place;you should go visit there).Then I became overwhelmed.I didn’t realize how MUCH there was.

At Esalen there are some large baths fed by hot springs situated on a ledge about thirty feet above the ocean.One of my most pleasurable experiences has been to sit in one of those baths and watch the waves crashing onto the rocky slope below, to gaze into the clear blue sky above, and to study a beautiful nude as she quietly appears and settles into the bath with me.

One time I sat down in a bath where there was a beautiful girl sitting with a guy who didn’t seem to know her.Right away I began thinking, “Gee!How am I gonna get started talking to this beautiful nude woman?”

I’m trying to figure out what to say, when the guy says to her, “I’m, uh, studying massage.Could I practice on you?” “Sure,” she says.They get out of the bath and she lies down on a massage table nearby.I think to myself, “What a nifty line!I can never think of anything like that!” He starts to rub her big toe.”I think I feel it,” he says.”I feel a kind of dent–is that the pituitary?” I blurt out, “You’re a helluva long way from the pituitary, man!” They looked at me, horrified–I had blown my cover–and said, “It’s reflexology!” I quickly closed my eyes and appeared to be meditating.

That’s just an example of the kind of things that overwhelm me.I also looked into extrasensory perception, and PSI phenomena, and the latest craze there was Uri Geller, a man who is supposed to be able to bend keys by rubbing them with his finger.So I went to his hotel room, on his invitation, to see a demonstration of both mindreading and bending keys.He didn’t do any mindreading that succeeded;nobody can read my mind, I guess.And my boy held a key and Geller rubbed it, and nothing happened.Then he told us it works better under water, and so you can picture all of us standing in the bathroom with the water turned on and the key under it, and him rubbing the key with his finger.Nothing happened.So I was unable to investigate that phenomenon.

But then I began to think, what else is there that we believe?(And I thought then about the witch doctors, and how easy it would have been to check on them by noticing that nothing really worked.) So I found things that even more people believe, such as that we have some knowledge of how to educate.There are big schools of reading methods and mathematics methods, and so forth, but if you notice, you’ll see the reading scores keep going down–or hardly going up–in spite of the fact that we continually use these same people to improve the methods.There’s a witch doctor remedy that doesn’t work.It ought to be looked into;how do they know that their method should work?Another example is how to treat criminals.We obviously have made no progress–lots of theory, but no progress–in decreasing the amount of crime by the method that we use to handle criminals.

Yet these things are said to be scientific.We study them.And I think ordinary people with commonsense ideas are intimidated by this pseudoscience.A teacher who has some good idea of how to teach her children to read is forced by the school system to do it some other way–or is even fooled by the school system into thinking that her method is not necessarily a good one.Or a parent of bad boys, after disciplining them in one way or another, feels guilty for the rest of her life because she didn’t do “the right thing,” according to the experts.

So we really ought to look into theories that don’t work, and science that isn’t science.

I think the educational and psychological studies I mentioned are examples of what I would like to call cargo cult science.In the South Seas there is a cargo cult of people.During the war they saw airplanes with lots of good materials, and they want the same thing to happen now.So they’ve arranged to make things like runways, to put fires along the sides of the runways, to make a wooden hut for a man to sit in, with two wooden pieces on his head to headphones and bars of bamboo sticking out like antennas–he’s the controller–and they wait for the airplanes to land.They’re doing everything right.The form is perfect.It looks exactly the way it looked before.But it doesn’t work.No airplanes land.So I call these things cargo cult science, because they follow all the apparent precepts and forms of scientific investigation, but they’re missing something essential, because the planes don’t land.

Now it behooves me, of course, to tell you what they’re missing.But it would be just about as difficult to explain to the South Sea islanders how they have to arrange things so that they get some wealth in their system.It is not something simple like telling them how to improve the shapes of the earphones.But there is one feature I notice that is generally missing in cargo cult science.That is the idea that we all hope you have learned in studying science in school–we never say explicitly what this is, but just hope that you catch on by all the examples of scientific investigation.It is interesting, therefore, to bring it out now and speak of it explicitly.It’s a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty–a kind of leaning over backwards.For example, if you’re doing an experiment, you should report everything that you think might make it invalid–not only what you think is right about it:other causes that could possibly explain your results;and things you thought of that you’ve eliminated by some other experiment, and how they worked–to make sure the other fellow can tell they have been eliminated.

Details that could throw doubt on your interpretation must be given, if you know them.You must do the best you can–if you know anything at all wrong, or possibly wrong–to explain it.If you make a theory, for example, and advertise it, or put it out, then you must also put down all the facts that disagree with it, as well as those that agree with it.There is also a more subtle problem.When you have put a lot of ideas together to make an elaborate theory, you want to make sure, when explaining what it fits, that those things it fits are not just the things that gave you the idea for the theory;but that the finished theory makes something else come out right, in addition.

In summary, the idea is to give all of the information to help others to judge the value of your contribution;not just the information that leads to judgement in one particular direction or another.

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Contact:Gozde Zorlu

People look for candidates with a healthy complexion when choosing a leader, but don’t favor the most intelligent-looking candidates except for positions that require negotiation between groups or exploration of new markets.These results are published in the open-access journal Frontiers in Human Neuroscience. Brian Spisak from the VU University Amsterdam and colleagues studied people’s implicit preferences for traits of leaders, such as health, intelligence, and attractiveness, and how they look for information about these qualities in the physical appearance of others. The researchers focused on facial traits because these provide a wealth of information about individuals.For example, in women as well as men, caring and cooperative personalities are statistically more likely to have a more “feminine” face, due to higher estrogen levels, while aggressive risk-takers tend to have higher testosterone levels and a more “masculine” face. They asked 148 women and men to imagine that they were selecting a new CEO for a company and to repeatedly pick between two photos of male faces.For each choice, the participants were given a job description that specified the CEO’s main challenge.This was either to drive aggressive competition, renegotiate a key partnership with another company, lead the company’s shift into a new market, or oversee the stable, sustained exploitation of non-renewable energy. In each choice, both photos were of the same man, whose face had been digitally transformed.His face had been made to look more or less intelligent while his complexion was changed to look more or less healthy. A stronger general preference for health than intelligence was found.The participants chose more healthy-looking faces over less healthy-looking faces in 69% of trials, and this preference was equally strong irrespective of the future CEO’s main challenge.More intelligent-looking faces were only preferred over less intelligent-looking faces for the two challenges that would require the most diplomacy and inventiveness:renegotiating the partnership and exploring the new market. “Here we show that it always pays for aspiring leaders to look healthy, which explains why politicians and executives often put great effort, time, and money in their appearance.If you want to be chosen for a leadership position, looking intelligent is an optional extra under context-specific situations whereas the appearance of health appears to be important in a more context-general way across a variety of situations,” says Spisak, lead author of the paper and Assistant Professor at the Department of Management and Organization of VU University Amsterdam.
Link to the article, which will appear on the following active URL:[7] Article title:A face for all seasons:Searching for context-specific leadership traits and discovering a general preference for perceived health
Journal:Frontiers in Human Neuroscience
DOI:10.3389/fnhum.2014.00792 Authors:Brian R.Spisak, Nancy M.Blaker, Carmen E.Lefevre, Fhionna R.Moore and Kleis F.Krebbers 3.Contacts Brian Spisak
Assistant Professor

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Mike Loukides (@mikeloukides) pour O’Reilly Radar (@radar) explique très bien ce qui bloque. “Il n’y pas que les données qui doivent être ouvertes : il y a aussi les modèles ! (…) Vous pouvez avoir toutes les données sur la criminalité que vous voulez, toutes les données de l’immobilier que vous voulez, toutes les données sur les performances des élèves que vous voulez, toutes les données médicales que vous voulez, mais si vous ne savez pas quels modèles sont utilisés pour générer des résultats, vous n’aurez pas beaucoup de réponses.” Sans modèles, les données risquent seulement d’être auto-réalisatrices. Mais si les modèles ne sont pas ouverts comment pourrons-nous savoir si ce qu’ils nous disent dépend d’un biais du modèle ? A mesure que nous devenons dépendants de la modélisation, le monde nous devient impénétrable. Sans modèles, nous ne comprendrons jamais la façon dont les traitements nous manipulent. “L’ouverture des données permet la démocratisation de données. (…) Mais si voulez vraiment comprendre les effets que les données peuvent avoir sur l’application de la loi, sur l’assurance, sur l’éducation, sur l’économie, vous avez besoin d’avoir accès aux modèles.”

Seven German Army (Bundeswehr) soldiers
stand on the tarmac with their backpacks facing a Transall military
supply aircraft at the NATO air base in Hohn, Germany, on Sept. 19,
The German army has faced
a shortage of equipment for years, but the situation has recently
become so precarious that some soldiers took matters
into their own hands. On Tuesday, German broadcaster ARD[1] revealed that German
soldiers tried to hide the lack of arms by replacing heavy machine
guns with broomsticks during a NATO exercise last year. After
painting the wooden sticks black, the German soldiers
swiftly attached[2] them to the top of
armored vehicles, according to a confidential army report
which was leaked to ARD.[Related: The
German military faces a major challenge from
A defense ministry spokesperson said the use of
broomsticks was not a common practice, and that the decision
of the involved soldiers was “hard to comprehend.”
According to the ministry, the armored vehicles were furthermore
not supposed to be armed. It remains unclear how many
broomsticks were substituted for machine guns.

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Nous avons à nouveau un futur

“Le prospectiviste Jeremy Rifkin (Wikipédia, @jeremyrifkin), directeur de la Fondation des tendances économiques est un penseur important de notre modernité. Nombre de ses livres se sont révélés prophétiques comme La fin du travail (1996) ou L’âge de l’accès (2000). Son dernier livre, la Troisième révolution industrielle (voir également le site dédié), est certainement l’un de ses plus ambitieux, car il nous livre – rien de moins – qu’un futur de rechange par rapport à celui qu’on abandonne.”


J’ai représenté le GCSP au Colloque international des 10 ans du CHEDS à Dakar, du X au Y juillet 2023. Focalisé sur le thème de XXX, ce colloque a démontré le dynamisme de la réflexion stratégique et politique en Afrique de l’Est. Les analyses et les propositions de solution étaient convaincantes et les débats, nourris dans la bienveillance, laissent entrevoir de fructueux documents par la suite.
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Je soutiendrai, en vue de l’obtention du grade de docteur en Science politique, ma thèse intitulée

«Acteurs et transformations des politiques de défense militaire suisses (1948-2008) sous l’angle du cadre des coalitions advocatives.»

La soutenance aura lieu le mardi 12 septembre 2023 à 15h00, Bâtiment Géopolis, salle 2121, Université de Lausanne. Elle sera suivie d’un apéritif. Merci de votre inscription.

Ouvrir le fichier de l’affiche de la soutenance (pdf, 40kB).

On recommande l’accès à l’UNIL par les transports publics (arrêt métro Chavanne-R, UNIL-Mouline).

Résumé de la thèse

Cette thèse étudie les acteurs et les transformations des politiques publiques de militaire suisses, ces activités que la Confédération entreprend (ou non) pour organiser et développer la défense militaire ainsi que pour préparer l’emploi de la force et son exercice.

On a analysé les quatre réformes militaires entreprises entre 1948 et 2008. Pour comprendre ces mutations souvent conflictuelles, la prise en compte de facteurs domestiques et des croyances des acteurs influents s’avère incontournable. En conséquence, on a appliqué un cadre majeur des recherches en politiques publiques, l’Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF).  L’ACF prend bien en compte l’impact sur le programme militaire des querelles conceptionnelles observées tout au long de la période d’étude.

La recherche s’articule autour de trois questions : (1) Qui sont les acteurs majeurs des transformation ? (2) Pourquoi et comment les politiques de défense militaires suisses de l’après–guerre se transforment–elles ? (3) Quel est l’apport de l’analyse des transformations des politiques de défense militaires suisses au développement de l’ACF ?

Le test qualitatif des hypothèses, totalisant une centaine d’observations, conduit à plusieurs résultats majeurs : (1) une évaluation fouillée du cadre des coalitions advocatives sur une période de soixante ans ; (2) la description dans le temps long des dynamiques des politiques publiques de défense militaire sous l’angle des disputes de croyances entre acteurs ; (3) le rôle central du chef du département de la défense dans la transformation ainsi que (4) la nécessité de compléter l’ACF pour mieux comprendre certaines politiques publiques institutionnelles.

Cette thèse novatrice contribue au développement de la connaissance par des apports substantiels et par son approche originale. Elle offre une grille d’analyse des transformations des politiques de défense militaire qui contribue, par rétroaction, à la critique et au développement de l’agenda de recherche de l’ACF.


Informations plus détaillées sur la thèse